Despite revelations about his previous arrests and business career, Republican Tom Foley has burst into an even larger lead in the latest Quinnipiac University poll in the race for governor.
Foley, the former U.S. ambassador to Ireland, is up by 35 points over his nearest rival, Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele of Stamford in advance of the Republican primary on August 10. Foley has 48 percent, compared to 13 percent for Fedele and 7 percent for longtime business executive Oz Griebel of Simsbury among likely Republican voters.
Foley's latest lead represents an increase from the past three previous polls since March, which all had him leading by at least 26 points. Foley told Capitol Watch recently that his campaign's internal polls showed that he was ahead by an even larger margin than the 26 to 27 point leads that the recent Quinnipiac polls had been projecting. Now, the latest Quinnipiac poll is more in line with Foley's internal polls.
On the Democratic side, Greenwich cable television entrepreneur Ned Lamont has maintained his lead over former Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy in a race that is tightening. Lamont is leading with 46 percent, compared to 37 percent for Malloy. Among likely Democratic voters, only 16 percent said they were undecided, but 50 percent said they could still change their minds.
Malloy and his chief strategist, Roy Occhiogrosso, have predicted that the campaign will stage a come-from-behind victory after Malloy's television commercials are broadcast around the state in the weeks leading to the August 10 primary.
"Today's Quinnipiac Poll confirms what we've been feeling every day for the past few weeks: Dan's got the momentum,'' said Malloy's campaign manager, Dan Kelly. "It's obvious.''
Malloy called again for another debate with Lamont, who has been the front runner for several months. Malloy wants to debate Lamont in a live, televised debate in New London in late July, but Lamont has been running a front-runner strategy and says that they have already appeared in more than 25 joint appearances around the state.
With Malloy and Fedele both receiving more than $2 million in public financing, television commercials have become a constant presence on Connecticut stations - and that will continue through August 10. Both Lamont and Foley have already broadcast numerous commercials in recent months, and Malloy and Fedele are now working to catch up. The candidates were a constant presence in the commercials on the Fox Connecticut television news after the poll was released this morning.
Lamont and Malloy have also been in a dispute over how many jobs Malloy helped create during his 14-year tenure as Stamford's mayor. Lamont says that Malloy is misrepresenting his jobs record - the same charge that New Haven Mayor John DeStefano made during the 2006 campaign for governor.
In advertisements and on the campaign trail, Malloy has said repeatedly that he helped create 5,000 jobs as mayor. But state labor statistics showed that employment exploded during the early years of his administration before Stamford lost more than 13,000 jobs since the peak employment year in 2000. Overall, the unemployment rate increased more than 58 percent between 1995 and when Malloy left office in 2009. The city lost more than 5,000 jobs in a one-year period from June 2008 to June 2009, causing Stamford's office vacancy rate to jump sharply. Currently, the vacancy rate is 30 percent, according to Joseph McGee, vice president of the Business Council of Fairfield County.