Republican Sam Caligiuri has pulled ahead of Democratic U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy, according to a new poll released this afternoon.
Caligiuri, a state senator from Waterbury, leads two-term incumbent Murphy, 49.7 percentage points to 44.3 percentage points.
CT Capitol Reports, an online political news site, commissioned the survey, which was conducted by Merriman River Group.
The poll sharply contradicts internal numbers from the Murphy camp that were released by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee yesterday. That survey, conducted by the Gotham Research Group, has Murphy with a 13 point lead over Caligiuri.
The Merriman River poll has another piece of troubling news for Murphy: It found that the 5th District is the state's most conservative, the place where Republicans Linda McMahon and Tom Foley enjoy their strongest numbers, said Matthew Fitch, the poll's executive director.
"Chris Murphy appears to be facing an uphill fight to keep his seat," Fitch said in a press release announcing the results. "He is behind opponent Sam Caligiuri just outside the margin of error, with Caligiuri pushing the 50 percent threshold in our survey. While the race is obviously competitive, it is often difficult for an incumbent to come back after falling behind a challenger in the last month."