A new poll says that the governor's race is literally tied between Democrat Dannel Malloy and Republican Tom Foley.
The poll, released by the CT Capitol Report website, says that each candidate received 45.1 percent of those surveyed with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.
Several other polls say that the race is particularly close. The Quinnipiac poll has Malloy ahead by 5 percentage points with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. A Rasmussen poll has Malloy ahead by 3 points with a margin of error of 4 points. Foley himself says that his nightly tracking poll has had him ahead on some nights recently.
Compared to the Quinnipiac poll that has prominent surveys in multiple states, the CT Capitol Report survey is new on the political scene in Connecticut. The poll was conducted by the Hamden-based Merriman River Group, which is not as well known as many other polling organizations. Overall, the group said that 1,846 likely voters were surveyed via telephone between October 24 and 26 - with 6.3 percent undecided. The group says that its polling method has "accuracy far exceeding traditional polling methods'' that are used in other surveys.
"It seems clear we are heading to the tightest two-way gubernatorial finish in recent memory," poll director Matthew Fitch said in a statement. "The elections of 1990 and 1994, both of which were three-way races, were decided by about four points each. It may even be the closest election since 1954 when Abe Ribicoff won by about 3,000 votes. It is likely that the final spread will be less than four percentage points. With so few undecided voters, it is unlikely that we will see significant shifts in opinion."
While little known to the general public, Merriman says it is the only polling operation that successfully predicted that Malloy would defeat Greenwich cable TV executive Ned Lamont in the Democratic primary in August. Lamont had been leading in all of the Quinnipiac polls up to election day.